Why Atletico Madrid Will Win the Champions League
By George Cannon
Diego Simeone must have been doing one of his crazy mad dashes around his bedroom - usually reserved for the touchline - when he heard the news regarding the change in this season's Champions League format.
A one-off affair with no fans there to spur on the opposition to continue attacking until a game's dying embers? A game where his red and white wall can low block to their hearts content in borderline silence? The Argentine couldn't have designed it much better himself.
Atletico's Champions League exit last season came at the hands of an inspired Cristiano Ronaldo hat-trick in front of 40,000 screaming Turin natives. Holding out slender leads over 90 minutes rather than 180 with only a backdrop of Simeone's shrieks will be a much simpler task. One Atletico will relish.
This is the sort of knock-out tournament that Los Rojiblancos are designed for.
With all the drama that so often surrounds their enigmatic manager, it's easy to forget the quality that's on display at the Wanda Metropolitano Stadium. Jan Oblak, Jose Gimenez, Saul Niguez and Koke are the envy of many European giants and £113m wonderkid Joao Felix can provide a moment of magic in attack.
Atletico are also hitting form at just the right time. After struggling for much of the campaign and looking as though a battle for fourth may be beyond them, Simeone's side returned from the lockdown in fine fashion. Unbeaten in their final 11 La Liga matches, winning seven and only conceding six goals in the process, they secured third spot with a lot too spare.
Now is not the time to be facing a team that's just rediscovered their formula for success.
That is the task RB Leipzig face on Thursday night. A side that hasn't played a competitive fixture since 27 June and has lost it's star player in Timo Werner to Chelsea and modern football's twisted loyalties.
The semi-final draw also looks like a Simeone dream come true. Spanish rivals Barcelona, Pep Guardiola's Manchester City and almost everyone's tournament favourites Bayern Munich will have to fight it out before they get a chance to fire at Oblak's net.
Their midweek opponents and one of either Atalanta or Paris Saint-Germain stand between Atletico and a maiden Champions League trophy. And although all are worthy of their place in the latter stages of Europe's elite competition, none will be giving the capital club sleepless nights.
Leipzig will be rusty and 34 goals light. Atalanta have no European pedigree and will be without Josip Ilicic's 21 strikes and PSG are notorious bottlers when under the Champions League glare. Coupled with Kylian Mbappé's injury issues and the Parisian's short supply of recent fixtures, the Spaniards will be fancying their chances.
That would just leave the small matter of the final left to solve but anything can happen in those kind of games. Form and talent so often go out of the window and are replaced by which set of players are brave enough to handle the big occasion. A quality that runs through the core of every footballer to play under Simeone.
A lot of footballers believe in fate. They often have rituals that they keep to religiously or superstitions that they stick by. And it feels like there may be an element of fate regarding Atletico's Champions League chances this year.
Six years on from their devastating defeat at the hands of city rivals Real Madrid, Atletico will return to the stadium where they had their dreams so cruelly crushed if they reach the final.
Sergio Ramos' 93rd minute equaliser in the Estadio da Luz back in 2014 set Carlo Ancelotti's men on their way to a 4-1 victory in extra time and Simeone failed to gain revenge two years later when Zinedine Zidane repeated the feat in his first six months of management.
But now could be the time. Fate, fortune and form all appear to be in Atletico's corner and you'd be a brave man to bet against them.