Supercomputer predicts Premier League relegation after bonkers bank holiday
The ball was not over the line but Dwight McNeil already had his arms outstretched in celebration.
Coasting between the rain drops and Brighton's sodden backline, McNeil walked Everton into a scarcely believable 4-0 lead. McNeil thundered a more emphatic strike into the top corner to complete a 5-1 rout for the Toffees in the second of three goal-laden games with potentially seismic consequences at the foot of the Premier League table.
A few hours earlier, Leicester City had scored three goals themselves but shipped five away to Fulham. Nottingham Forest concluded a truly bonkers bank holiday with a 4-3 victory over rock-bottom Southampton.
Everton and Forest both started the day sat inside the relegation zone but ended Monday night on the safe side of the dreaded dotted line, with Leeds United and Leicester joining Championship-bound Southampton in the drop zone. The predicted standings also endured a significant shake-up.
FiveThirtyEight uses its Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings to predict every fixture throughout the Premier League season. No one will be celebrating survival just yet as each side still has three games to play, but here's what FiveThirtyEight's model predicts for the relegation battle.
Projected 2022/23 Premier League relegation
Position | Team | Games | Current Points | Projected points | Chance of relegation (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
16 | Nottingham Forest | 35 | 33 | 35 | 37 |
17 | Everton | 35 | 32 | 35 | 28 |
18 | Leicester | 35 | 30 | 33 | 64 |
19 | Leeds | 35 | 30 | 33 | 71 |
20 | Southampton | 35 | 24 | 27 | 99 |
- Leicester fixtures compared to Everton, Leeds & Nottingham Forest after Fulham thrashing
- Everton fixtures compared to Leicester, Leeds & Nottm Forest after smashing Brighton
- Nottingham Forest's fixtures compared to Everton, Leeds & Leicester after Southampton win
Heading into the weekend's fixtures, Everton sat second-bottom of the table and were carrying a 61% chance of relegation around their neck. Yet, their fortunes have been miraculously reversed by Monday's utterly unexpected dismantling at the home of a Brighton side chasing European football.
After recording their largest away win since 2018 - when Sean Dyche was in charge of Burnley in a 5-1 reverse - Everton are now the least likely side of the division's bottom five to get relegated, with just a 28% chance of dropping into the second tier for the first time since 1954.
Forest's chances of immediately returning to the Championship have also taken a welcome hit, plummeting from 53% before the weekend to 37% after getting the odd goal in seven against Southampton.
Relegation for the Saints is not yet confirmed but it would take divine intervention for Southampton to avoid the drop, with FiveThirtyEight giving Ruben Selles' side a 99% chance of slipping out of the top flight.
After Everton and Forest's buccaneering bank holiday, Leeds have slipped into 19th place. Sam Allardyce inherited a side with a 58% chance of getting relegated but that probability has ballooned to 71% after just one match of his reign. With Newcastle, West Ham and Tottenham to play, Allardyce has his work cut out if he is to earn a reported £2.5m bonus for ensuring survival.
Dean Smith's Leicester City suffered the most drastic downturn in fortunes this weekend. Starting the most recent round of matches with a 72% chance of survival, Leicester are now third-favourites - behind Leeds and Southampton - to drop into the Championship.
After one day, three games and 21 goals, the relegation battle has been tipped on its head. Given the chaos that can be wreaked in any second of Premier League football, no team can afford to celebrate anything just yet.
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