Danny Welbeck Is the Missing Piece in the Brighton Jigsaw

When Brighton signed Danny Welbeck in October, there were more than a few eyebrows raised.

Following on from the capture of Adam Lallana three months earlier, it appeared as though Graham Potter was trying to reunite Roy Hodgson's England team from 2015 at the same time as giving the Seagulls' medical staff plenty of work over the coming year.

Anyone who has watched Brighton since Potter took charge in the summer of 2019, however, could see that bringing Welbeck to the Amex was a risk free, shrewd bit of business. The Seagulls play good football and create plenty of opportunities, but what consistently lets them down is their inability to stick the ball in the back of the net.

A lot of Brighton fans felt that the answer to this particular problem was staring Potter in the face during the 2019/20 season. Glenn Murray had been the third most clinical striker in the Premier League in 2018/19, scoring 24.1% of his 54 shots. That was a better strike rate than Mohamed Salah, Sergio Aguero, Jamie Vardy and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. Only Anthony Martial and Sadio Mane were more clinical than Murray.

In Brighton's first two years in the top flight, Murray notched 36% of the Seagulls' goals. No club has ever been so reliant on one player to score since the Premier League was formed in 1992. Despite those impressive figures, Potter did not like the look of Murray and his game time was extremely limited before his loan move to Watford.

That made the Seagulls' need to for a centre forward to fill Murray's boots even more pressing this summer. This was then amplified over the opening seven matches of the campaign. Brighton have dominated possession in every game they have played - including against Chelsea at home and Tottenham away - and prior to November's international break they had taken the third most shots in the Premier League after Liverpool and Spurs.

With the likes of Lallana, Pascal Gross, Tariq Lamptey, and the in-form Solly March on the supply line, creating chances has not been a problem for Brighton. The reason they only had one win on the board from their first eight matches and had failed to beat both West Brom and Burnley at home was because they were unable to stick the ball in the back of the net.

Neal Maupay has been the chief culprit. The Frenchman has four goals to his name but two of those have come from the penalty spot. Troublingly, Maupay is beginning to become remembered more for the glaring opportunities he misses rather than the goals he scores. There was a free header front and centre of the goal that he put off target in the 3-1 Chelsea defeat, two straightforward one-on-ones against Crystal Palace when he dallied rather than pull the trigger, and a couple of big chances against West Brom. He could have played for three hours that night and still not found the back of the net.

If Brighton were to avoid another long, hard slog against relegation this season they needed a striker. Potter spent most of the summer dismissing the idea, saying that signing a new centre forward would not be a 'silver bullet' and that he would rather focus on improving the output of Maupay, Aaron Connolly, Leandro Trossard, Alireza Jahanbakhsh and his other options.

When the transfer window shut on Friday 16 October, it appeared as though that was going to be Brighton's approach. And then on Sunday 18 October, the Seagulls announced that they had completed a deal to sign Welbeck on a one year contract following his release from Watford. The rest of the football world may have been surprised; some may have even laughed. But a proven, Premier League centre forward with a good strike rate was exactly what Brighton needed to start converting some of the countless opportunities they were creating.

At 6’1 and with the ability to hold the ball up, Welbeck also offered something completely different to Maupay and Connolly. From having two centre forwards who were similar in build and playing style, Potter added the skillset of a target man to his attacking options. The other gripe with Potter not using Murray last season was that it made Brighton one-dimensional in attack. Welbeck is a quicker, more mobile, younger version of Murray, the exact sort of striker the Seagulls needed.

The major snag with Welbeck's signing was his injury record. Brighton have negated that by offering a one-year deal which is heavily incentivised towards playing time. It's a win-win situation; if Welbeck stays fit, Potter has picked up a genuine goalscorer for nothing. If he doesn't, Brighton can cut their losses and release him at the end of the season.

Potter's willingness to chop and change his starting lineup depending on who Brighton's opponents are could also benefit Welbeck. That was something the Seagulls boss touched upon when discussing Welbeck's first month at the Amex in an interview with the official Brighton website, comparing the management of his new striker with the way he is handling Lallana.

"You have to find that balance, a bit like we have done with Adam. Danny is a top professional so he’s kept himself in great physical condition but you can’t do too much too soon. We’ve done a lot of work on team understanding since he’s been here and how we can get the most out of his ability and talent.”

There is even an argument that this idea of Welbeck being some sort of sick note has been blown out of proportion. Yes, he has endured a rough time with unfortunate long-term injuries over recent seasons, but he actually featured in all nine of Watford's matches post lockdown. His overall record for the struggling Hornets read three goals in 18 appearances in 2019/20.

Compare that to Brighton's strikers. Top scorer Maupay scored ten and Trossard hit five, although he spent most of the season as a number ten. Like Welbeck, Connolly notched three but he needed more appearances to do so, Murray got one and Jahanbakhsh two. Welbeck's goals-per-game ratio last season outstripped all of Brighton's centre forwards bar Maupay and for a team who ended the year being relegated. If Welbeck plays 18 games for this Seagulls side with the number of chances they create, you would bet your house on him scoring more than three.

Welbeck's first goal in a Brighton shirt away at Aston Villa was a case in point. He was released on halfway by Lallana, outstripped the Villa defence over 40 metres to bear down on Emiliano Martínez's goal and then produced a deft little chipped finished. No other Brighton player possesses the coolness to score a goal like; the idea of Maupay running through one-one-one in his current form is enough to bring most Brighton fans out in a cold sweat.

That Welbeck is doing that in just his second Brighton start is hugely encouraging. It will take him a few games yet to get match fit and rediscover his sharpness. When he does - and presuming he can stay fit, of course - he looks well suited to thrive in a Seagulls side who were a clinical striker away from being a very good outfit.

Early days it may be, but Welbeck could be the final piece in the Brighton jigsaw.