Supercomputer predicts Euro 2024 winners

  • Euro 2024 kicks off mid-June in Germany
  • Italy are reigning champions heading into the tournament
  • Opta's supercomputer has predicted the most likely winner
Italy head into Euro 2024 as champions
Italy head into Euro 2024 as champions / Tom Jenkins/GettyImages

Euro 2024 is just around the corner and it promises to be one of the most fiercely-contested tournaments in the competition's history.

Six or seven teams harbour genuine belief that they could be crowned kings of the continent come the middle of July, while there are more than a few nations capable of upsetting the odds and springing a surprise.

Whether any of them can achieve what Greece did at Euro 2004 remains to be seen, but they will fancy their chances of mingling with Europe's giants in Germany.

Thanks to Opta's fabled supercomputer, we can take a closer look at the tournament favourites...

Opta supercomputer predicts Euro 2024 winners

Harry Kane
England are Opta's favourites / Richard Sellers/Allstar/GettyImages

If you're an England fan of a superstitious disposition, look away now. That's right, Gareth Southgate's side have been handed the best chance of lifting the Henri Delaunay Cup at the Olympiastadion on 14 July, going one step further than they did as Euro 2020 finalists last time out. According to the data, they have a 19.9% chance of a first European Championship triumph.

However, hot on their tails will be 2022 World Cup finalists France, the side that sent England packing at the tournament in Qatar. They are given a 19.1% chance of glory despite being most neutrals' favourites, with Kylian Mbappe and company offered a 30.4% chance of reaching the final - 0.7% lower than England's odds of making the showpiece event.

Host nations tend to have a major advantage at major international tournaments, with Germany the side set to prosper this year. They are some way off England and France according to Opta, but they still have a 12.4% chance of claiming a record fourth European crown.

Spain have also won the tournament three times since its inception and have a 9.6% chance of overtaking Germany in the rankings, while 2016 champions Portugal are given a 9.2% shot in what could be Cristiano Ronaldo's final tournament.

A somewhat rejuvenated Netherlands side are looking to make amends for poor recent performances in the competition, but have just a 5.1% chance of winning a second title. Despite winning Euro 2020, reigning champions Italy have just a 5% chance of glory.

Who could be dark horses at Euro 2024?

Could Denmark reach the latter stages? / LISELOTTE SABROE/GettyImages

Perennial underachievers Belgium can't really be considered a dark horse with the likes of Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku in their squad, but recent tournament showings have left a lot to be desired. The fact that they have been given a 4.7% shot at winning the whole thing is perhaps a little generous.

Denmark surprised a few by reaching the semi-finals at Euro 2024, even after Christian Eriksen collapsed on the pitch during the group stage, and the 1992 winners are ninth favourites for the trophy at 2.2%.

2018 World Cup finalists Croatia are given a 2% chance and close out the top ten of favourites, but Luka Modric's side have proven time and time again they should never be discounted on the big stage.

Scotland fans hoping for a surprise run to the latter stages of the competition might be somewhat buoyed by the fact that Opta give them a 23.5% chance of making it to the quarter-finals. An overall victory sits at just 1%, however, alongside Ukraine and Serbia.

dark. Next. Euro 2024 sweepstake. PLAY: Our Euro 2024 sweepstake (UK only)