Why Leeds' Favourable Run-in May Work Against Them in Quest for Promotion

We're at the point in the season where supporters have their respective sides' remaining run-in memorised, down to even the kick off time.

Knowing who is up next and when, while simultaneously mind-mapping the expected points tally they'll accumulate, is equal measures of exciting and frightening.

For Leeds and all affiliated with them, it's more the latter.

Famed for being their own worst enemies, the phrase 'doing a Leeds' is not one the club wish to be associated with. But it's a simple fact that they have an unfortunate tendency to cripple under the pressure. Years of hurt and near-misses are not easily forgotten, so sitting atop the Championship table with five matches left to play has the fans understandably tentative.

They're on the periphery of glory. Six points clear of third-placed Brentford and in the top two with a West Brom side faltering drastically since the restart, promotion looks more than achievable.

All those glancing at the fixture list will see favourable matches too: Stoke, Swansea, Barnsley and Charlton, with a slightly trickier trip to Pride Park.

But those who look upon those matches and see four almost nailed on wins are not Leeds fans. If anything, the Leeds fans gazing upon those matches will see one more nailed on victory, the away clash with Derby.

How so? Because Leeds' biggest failures almost always come in the matches they're supposed to win.

For all the brilliance of Marcelo Bielsa and the positive changes he's made in west Yorkshire, their inability to break down low blocks has become their Achilles heel. When it's a side coming to Elland Road content with soaking up pressure for 93 minutes and leaving with a point, Leeds can't find the tools they need to unpick that lock.

This was more evident last season, but those demons have been tough to banish this term too. Take the recent draw with Luton, for example. Fighting for their lives but knowing if they go toe-to-toe with Leeds away from home they'll get ripped apart, they stuck ten men behind the ball.

Frustration crept in and as seen so many times before, a lack of concentration at the back resulted in a breakaway goal. From there the pressure mounts and positive results rarely follow.

With Stoke, Barnsley and Charlton all locked in a relegation dogfight, Leeds could find themselves in a position where all three sides would settle for a point. If that's the case, especially with so much at stake for the trio, it could prove to be Leeds' undoing.

Their most creative outlet, Pablo Hernandez, isn't capable of completing 90 minutes every three days, but he's vital to Bielsa's side as the most he's got the skillset best suited to unlocking the tightest of defences.

As seen recently, he is being used as a substitute later in matches, but if Leeds find themselves in a position in the second half of matches where they're either trailing or level, relying on Hernandez to provide the spark is a hefty weight to place on one man's shoulders.

Scoring first, but more crucially early, is so important for Leeds for the rest of their Championship season. It was something they managed away at Blackburn, and it provided them with the base to build and secure three points.

It may sound simple, and something all sides would ideally like to do, but where Leeds have faltered in this position before has been their inability to get a foothold in matches, followed by mental fatigue that the mounting pressure brings.

A poor result away at Birmingham, the demoralising home loss to Wigan, a tepid showing at Brentford and debacle against Aston Villa last season were evidence of their (lack of) mental toughness, so the fear once more is that if they struggle to break down rigid defences with the clock ticking down, they could come unstuck once more.

The hope for Leeds will be that the sides they have left to face may not be in a position where a draw will suffice. If that's the case, then it will play into Leeds' hands as they're far better suited to playing sides who come at them.

However, the upcoming sides will still know Leeds' weaknesses. Bielsa's side will have to overcome these issues to stand any chance of maintaining an automatic promotion berth.

But that, as we know with Leeds, is easier said than done.

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