The 2023/24 Premier League table based on xG
- Expected goals has become a mainstream metric when analysing matches
- Premier League's top three dominant in the xG charts
- Sheffield United and Burnley's xG stats do not make for pretty viewing
No longer are phrases such as "yeah, but we had more possession", or "we had more shots on-target" used in fierce childish debates over a particular result, whether it be on the school playground, in the pub, or on the social media app of your choosing.
Use 'possession' or mere 'shots' in a debate and you'll be laughed at in 2024. The world's moved on. The rage now is field tilt, zones of control, and, of course, the fated expected goals.
This statistical phenomenon has entered mainstream consciousness for some time now, yet some still can't grasp its importance. Your dad's probably called it a "load of tosh" or words of a similar kind, but he probably bemoans the use of 'inverted' before 'full-back and tells you how much better things were in his day.
While 'xG' is relentlessly shoved down our throats, it's nonetheless important in gauging the sustainability of a team's performance. Will the success last, or have they been overachieving in front of goal, depicting a potential demise further down the line?
xG raises such questions while simultaneously attempting to predict an answer.
Here's how the 2023/24 Premier League expected goals table looks.
The 2023/24 Premier League xG table
Pos | Team | Played | xG | Actual goals scored | xGA | xGD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Liverpool | 31 | 75.73 | 72 | 37.13 | +38.60 |
2. | Man City | 31 | 69.37 | 71 | 31.15 | +38.22 |
3. | Arsenal | 31 | 67.01 | 75 | 24.80 | +42.21 |
4. | Newcastle | 31 | 65.21 | 65 | 52.06 | +13.15 |
5. | Chelsea | 30 | 62.35 | 55 | 49.38 | +12.97 |
6. | Aston Villa | 32 | 59.87 | 66 | 52.80 | +7.07 |
7. | Tottenham | 31 | 59.52 | 65 | 53.57 | +5.95 |
8. | Brentford | 32 | 54.03 | 45 | 51.54 | +2.49 |
9. | Everton | 31 | 52.24 | 32 | 48.24 | +4.00 |
10. | Brighton | 31 | 51.24 | 51 | 49.63 | +1.61 |
11. | Bournemouth | 31 | 50.89 | 45 | 52.08 | -1.19 |
12. | Man Utd | 31 | 48.84 | 45 | 61.23 | -12.39 |
13. | West Ham | 32 | 46.09 | 52 | 61.11 | -15.02 |
14. | Wolves | 31 | 44.77 | 44 | 56.67 | -11.90 |
15. | Fulham | 32 | 44.30 | 47 | 57.34 | -13.04 |
16. | Luton | 32 | 44.00 | 45 | 75.68 | -31.68 |
17. | Nottingham Forest | 32 | 41.07 | 40 | 47.41 | -6.34 |
18. | Crystal Palace | 31 | 38.79 | 36 | 49.56 | -10.77 |
19. | Burnley | 32 | 33.95 | 32 | 60.95 | -27.00 |
20. | Sheffield United | 31 | 31.81 | 30 | 68.79 | -36.98 |
All xG stats are provided by Understat - data correct as of 10 April 2024
The Premier League's top three, who look set to compete in an enthralling title race, have also dominated the xG charts - depicting they're fully deserving of their lofty standing. Liverpool, Manchester City and Arsenal boast the three highest xG tallies (in that order) and have the lowest xGA in the division this season.
The Gunners lead the way when it comes to expected goal difference (xGD), with Man City and Liverpool miles ahead of the fourth-highest figure - accumulated by Newcastle United.
Chelsea and Newcastle are both impressing on the xG front, but they have been incredibly inefficient in front of goal. Their xG underperformance in the Premier League is worrying, although Everton lead the way by some margin for profligacy.
Manchester United have been surprisingly poor performers in both boxes this season and sit 12th for xG, while, rather remarkably, only relegation candidates Sheffield United and Luton Town have a higher xGA tally than Erik ten Hag's side.
The newly-promoted sides have all been remarkably poor in terms of xG totals this term. The Blades are rock bottom of the table for xGD too, with Luton boasting the highest xGA in the division due to their leaky defence. However, it's the Blades that have actually conceded the most goals this season, and they could break the Premier League record for worst defence come the end of the campaign.
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