Supercomputer predicts the teams that will be relegated from the Premier League
By Dan Hepburn
The Premier League's battle at the bottom is destined to be one for the ages, with 11 points separating rock-bottom Southampton and Wolves, who sit in 13th place.
Arsenal and Manchester City are in a two-horse race at the summt to see who can take home domestic glory come the end of the season. Pep Guardiola and former understudy Mikel Arteta are set to go toe-to-toe until the very end, with their highly anticipated contest at the end of April an integral part to both their hopes.
The other end will provide just as much if not more excitement as multiple teams give all they can to stay in the Premier League. In a matter of a couple of days, the whole trajectory of the relegation scrap can be flipped on its head and the closeness between the teams is setting up the closing games of this term to provide supporters with primetime viewing.
FiveThirtyEight uses its Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings to predict every fixture throughout the Premier League season. Here's how they see this thrilling end of the campaign panning out.
Projected final Premier League 2022/23 standings
Position | Team | Current points | Projected points |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Manchester City | 67 | 88 |
2 | Arsenal | 73 | 88 |
3 | Manchester United | 56 | 71 |
4 | Newcastle | 56 | 70 |
5 | Brighton | 49 | 64 |
6 | Liverpool | 44 | 62 |
7 | Tottenham | 53 | 62 |
8 | Aston Villa | 50 | 60 |
9 | Brentford | 43 | 52 |
10 | Fulham | 42 | 50 |
11 | Chelsea | 39 | 49 |
12 | Crystal Palace | 36 | 47 |
13 | Wolves | 34 | 41 |
14 | Bournemouth | 33 | 41 |
15 | West Ham | 30 | 40 |
16 | Leeds | 29 | 37 |
17 | Leicester | 25 | 34 |
18 | Everton | 27 | 33 |
19 | Nottingham Forest | 27 | 33 |
20 | Southampton | 23 | 29 |
As of 15/04/2023
The supercomputer projects that both title contenders will accrue 88 points by the end of the season, but the battle will be settled in favour of the Manchester-based outfit based on their superior goal difference.
A close contest between third and fourth will play out between the two Uniteds, Manchester and Newcastle, as the duo pip high-flying Brighton to secure top four credentials. Liverpool are predicted to make a swift entry into European football in sixth place, despite currently sitting six points off; they do however have two games in hand over sixth-placed Aston Villa.
Cristian Stellini's temporary stewardship is evidently not enough for the supercomputer, which predicts Tottenham will drop two spots down the table in the remaining seven fixtures, only accruing nine points from across those.
Should Brentford manage their predicted ninth spot, Thomas Frank's men would pull off their best finish in England's top division since their return.
There are no changes in standings for Fulham, Chelsea, Crystal Palace and Wolves as they earn their respective spots in the English top division, placed between tenth and 13th, just ahead of an unexpected relegation survivor.
In a surprise 14th spot is south coast outfit Bournemouth, who many thought would succumb to the pressure of the Premier League. Despite their turbulent season, the supercomputer trusts Gary O'Neil's powers to keep them afloat.
West Ham and Leeds also survive and according to the supercomputer will gain ten and eight points, respectively. A last-ditch attempt to remain in the Premier League will be enough for both teams. Saying this, anything can happen and their futures are up in the air as we enter Premier League crunch time.
Newly appointed Dean Smith may lead Leicester to escape relegation to the Championship as they sit one point adrift from the drop zone, leaving Everton, Forest and Southampton all to go down. The supercomputer's Everton relegation prediction would turn a few heads as it would be their first time leaving Premier League since its inception in 1992.
Southampton are bottom dwellers in both the current standings and the projected points prediction calculated by the supercomputer. A change in tutelage seems to have the Saints poised for relegation as they are predicted to finish the campaign on a measly 29 points.