Supercomputer predicts Premier League title race after Arsenal slip up against West Ham
By Dan Hepburn
Arsenal gave up a two-goal lead to drop points in front of a raucous London Stadium on Sunday afternoon.
Arsenal were seemingly in cruise control early on, as goals from Gabriel Jesus and Martin Odegaard put the league leaders 2-0 up within 10 minutes. Algerian international Said Benrahma halved the deficit from the spot, before Jarrod Bowen scored a stunning second half equaliser for West Ham.
Manchester City will have enjoyed the game on Sunday as they now have the chance to go one point behind their title-chasing companions if they take full advantage of their game in hand.
The Citizens will also then fancy their chances of going top with a win over the Gunners at the Etihad later in the month.
In order to gauge the run-in for ourselves, we've taken to FiveThirtyEight's Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings system to predict the outcome the rest of this season's fixtures:
Projected 2022/23 Premier League champions
Position | Team | Current points | Projected points |
|---|---|---|---|
1. | Manchester City | 70 | 88 |
2. | Arsenal | 74 | 87 |
The supercomputer has backed the reigning champions to retain their crown by a single point after 38 games.
As things stand, Arsenal are four points better off than Manchester City, but the latter do have one game in-hand which if they win will close the gap to just the one point. Manchester City are currently in the best form of the season and will be confiden of winning said game in-hand.
With eight games left to play, the Etihad-based outfit are projected to earn 18 points in that sequence, whereas Arsenal are expected to gain 13 points from their remaining seven outings. The supercomputer has more confidence in City's ability to see out an impressive campaign close.
Final predicted 2022/23 Premier League table
Manchester United and Newcastle are currently in a close battle to see who will earn third place, but the prediction here shows Erik ten Hag's men will gain one point extra over the course of the season.
Position | Team | Current points | Projected points |
|---|---|---|---|
3. | Manchester United | 57 | 71 |
4. | Newcastle | 56 | 70 |
5. | Brighton | 49 | 64 |
6. | Liverpool | 44 | 62 |
7. | Tottenham | 53 | 62 |
8. | Aston Villa | 50 | 60 |
9. | Brentford | 43 | 52 |
10. | Fulham | 42 | 50 |
11. | Chelsea | 39 | 48 |
12. | Crystal Palace | 36 | 47 |
13. | Wolves | 34 | 41 |
14. | Bournemouth | 33 | 41 |
15. | West Ham | 31 | 40 |
16. | Leeds | 29 | 37 |
17. | Leicester | 25 | 34 |
18. | Everton | 27 | 33 |
19. | Nottingham Forest | 27 | 33 |
20. | Southampton | 23 | 30 |
As things stand - 16/04/2023
Brighton and Liverpool make up the rest of the top six and will endure busy Thursday nights next season, as predicted by the supercomputer.
Unai Emery's high flying Aston Villa outfit are backed to gain 10 points from their final nine domestic matches despite being unbeaten in eight. The majority of their final outings are against top-half sides.
From ninth spot to all the way down to Leeds, who sit in 16th, the positions remain unchanged across the rest of the season.
Currently perched in 19th spot, the supercomputer has predicted that Leicester will accumulate nine points from their final seven games of this campaign which would propel them to safety - one point above 18th-place Everton.
Nottingham Forest, who face three out of the traditional top six in their last domestic outings are poised to enter the drop zone, according to the supercomputer.