Supercomputer predicts final 2023/24 Premier League table after Gameweek 2
- Man City remain strong favourites to win fourth-straight title
- Chelsea big fallers after picking up just one point in opening two games
- Bournemouth tipped for the drop after one draw and one defeat
Two matchdays down, just another 36 to go!
The 2023/24 Premier League season is still months out from taking shape, yet these snazzy supercomputers fancy themselves to project exactly what's going to happen for the remainder of the campaign. Technology's arrogance knows now bounds.
Opta ran 10,000 simulations of the entire fixture list ahead of the current campaign, where each team's strength is calculated as a mix of betting market odds and a hierarchical Elo-based rating system. That initial simulation is adjusted every week, and here's how the 2023/24 Premier League season is expected to shake out after Gameweek 2.
Supercomputer predicts 2023/24 Premier League table after Gameweek 2
Position | Team | Likelihood of predicted finish (%) |
|---|---|---|
1. | Man City | 91.4 |
2. | Arsenal | 42.7 |
3. | Liverpool | 27.9 |
4. | Man Utd | 20.8 |
5. | Newcastle | 16.0 |
6. | Brighton | 14.5 |
7. | Tottenham | 13.0 |
8. | Brentford | 12.8 |
9. | Aston Villa | 12.3 |
10. | Chelsea | 12.6 |
11. | West Ham | 12.5 |
12. | Crystal Palace | 14.0 |
13. | Fulham | 14.4 |
14. | Nottingham Forest | 12.4 |
15. | Wolves | 13.1 |
16. | Burnley | 12.9 |
17. | Everton | 14.1 |
18. | Bournemouth | 14.9 |
19. | Luton | 19.9 |
20. | Sheffield United | 24.6 |
*Data via Opta, correct as of 22 August 2023
City's perfect start which included their worryingly comfortable 1-0 win over Newcastle means Opta are still heavily backing the Cityzens to claim their fourth-straight Premier League title. Opta gives City a 91.4% chance of winning the league, with Arsenal, who have also started with back-to-back wins, currently boasting a 5.1% chance. It was 4.1% before the campaign got underway, but they're still more likely to finish fifth (5.9%).
The Gunners are primed for another second place finish, with the computer not yet spooked by Liverpool's number six woes nor Man Utd's less than convincing start. Opta backs these clubs to finish third and fourth respectively, with Newcastle claiming the final Champions League spot in fifth.
The big fallers compared to Opta's pre-season prediction are Chelsea. The computer backed Mauricio Pochettino to guide the Blues to sixth, but their defeat at West Ham has seen their stock fall steeply. Opta now fancies Chelsea to finish tenth, with Brighton, Tottenham, Brentford, and Aston Villa all projected to finish above them again.
At the other end of the table, nothing has changed in regard to Opta's relegation prediction. The computer still fancies Bournemouth, Luton, and Sheffield United to go down. Although, it's mightily tight between the Cherries and Everton, who were woeful at Villa on Sunday, for 18th place. Both teams have a 14.9% chance of finishing in the final relegation spot, although Everton are more likely to finish 17th compared to Bournemouth (14.1% to 13.9%) and less likely to finish 19th (15% to 15.9%).
Opta are more bullish on Nottingham Forest following their positive start to the campaign, while West Ham, Crystal Palace, and Fulham are backed for mid-table finishes. These projections haven't altered since the start of the season.
The Cottagers' projection could slide should they fail to adequately replace Aleksandar Mitrovic before the end of the summer transfer window.
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