The story of Atlanta United's season was summed up again in 1-1 draw with Toronto FC

Atlanta United are in the lead with 15 minutes to go. The opposition is starting to pile on the pressure and cracks are appearing. Hang on, we've watched this movie before, right?

The Five Stripes being unable to close out a result is becoming an all too familiar sight. In fact, their 1-1 draw with Toronto FC on Saturday - which they led from the 15th minute until the 88th - takes them to a massive 18 points dropped from winning positions this season.

Though a big ask, holding on to every single one of those points would see Atlanta second in the overall standings, only eight points behind record-setting Supporters' Shield winners, New England Revolution.

Even saving the net six points they're down due to goals scored in the final 15 minutes of matches would have them second in the East and ready to play host for most of the MLS Cup Playoffs.

Instead, they're faced with realistically needing to win at least one of their final two matches on the road at the in-form New York Red Bulls and bottom-of-the-table FC Cincinnati on Decision Day.

"How do you close out the game in a better way? I think scoring goals is the best way," head coach Gonzalo Pineda said after the match. "When we are not able to do that because we are just not clinical, it is really hard. Today we created many chances, but it wasn’t a typical day for our forwards to miss so many chances. Not too much to say. We lost two points again at home and I’m very disappointed.”

Pineda has a point. Atlanta United generated 2.59xG on Saturday compared to TFC's 0.91, but only hit the target with four of their 19 shots, while the visitors tested Brad Guzan with eight of their 11. Josef Martinez alone was attributed an xG value of 1.44 and missed three 'Big Chances' on an unusually profligate night for him, though to his credit, the Venezuelan has pulled this team out of trouble on enough occasions in the past. Missed chances in recent games against the likes of NYCFC and CF Montreal have cost them dearly.

"We are not closing the games early enough," said Ezequiel Barco, who had a stunning second-half strike ruled out for offside. "We are missing some chances which is costly. We need to do better with the chances that we have."

But it's also important to remember that Atlanta United are overperforming their expected goals by a considerable amount. Each individual model has its own slightly different conclusion but, using Fbref's as an example, the Five Stripes should be expected to have just under 39 goals at this point, when in reality they have 43.

Their xGA (expected goals against) currently stands at 43.8 while they've actually conceded just 36, suggesting they've been a little lucky at the back at times, too.

Indeed, it's not just one-goal leads Atlanta are throwing away. The memory of those 2-2 draws at home to Nashville and the Philadelphia Union in the summer - where the Five Stripes were 2-0 up with 10 and seven minutes to go, respectively - still cut deep.

"We need to quit making those same mistakes," center-back Miles Robinson said of the Atlanta defense, which has made the third-highest number of errors leading to shots in MLS this season (8).

"We need to understand that in these games where it’s 1-0, we have to lock it in and we just can’t concede. It’s happened numerous times this season where we have conceded in the last 10 minutes and it’s so frustrating."

Saturday's result is all the more painful considering TFC have basically nothing to play for in MLS and will be saving themselves for the Canadian Championship semi-final against Pacific FC on Wednesday - their only remaining chance of silverware and a place in the Concacaf Champions League.

What's more, the Reds started with four players aged 21 or under, while they introduced another two youngsters from the bench: Jordan Perruzza who scored the equalizer and Jacob Shaffelburg whose pace and energy seriously unstabled the Atlanta backline.

None of this is to take away from Toronto's result. Indeed, they hung in there and Javier Perez got his substitutions absolutely spot on. But with their quality and experience, and the gravity of the situation, Atlanta should definitely be getting this one over the line.

Chances are that Atlanta United will still get the points they need to make the Playoffs. They always struggle against the Red Bulls, but have lost just once in their history against FC Cincinnati and beat them 4-0 not even two months ago. Even making the post-season is an impressive achievement given they'd won just two of their 13 MLS games by the time Gabriel Heinze departed.

But their hopes of hosting many (if any) games have taken a serious hit. And away from home, in a single-elimination format, Atlanta will be punished heavily if they continue with this sort of wastefulness and haphazard defending.

"We just play game-by-game and this happens to be one of the stories of the season which is unfortunate," said Robinson. "We all have to look at ourselves in the mirror and get better, because we have to if we are trying to make a playoff run.”