The Premier League Players Most Underperforming on Their xG - Ranked
Like it or not, xG is here to stay. You'll have seen it pop up during TV broadcasts in the last couple of years, while social media is awash with stats merchants who treat it like the unquestionable source of all footballing knowledge.
In case you've been living under a rock for the past few seasons, xG stands for 'expected goals' and it is essentially a measure of chance quality.
The quality of each scoring chance is analysed and given an xG rating depending on various factors that affect the difficulty of the opportunity. This can include the type of assist, whether the shot was taken with the head or foot, the angle of the shot, the distance and how much pressure the shooter was under from the opposition.
When these stats are collated for a player, you get an idea of how many goals a player should be scoring. Now, keen followers of 90min will know that we recently had a look at which players had been best outperforming their xG this season.
Now it's time for the ol' switcheroo, as we look at some of the league's worst finishers who have been underperforming the most compared to their xG.
(Stats via FBRef)
10. Ilkay Gundogan
Gundogan has endured one of the lowest scoring campaigns of his career so far this season.
As he's been deployed in a more defensive role by Manchester City it is hardly surprising. However, a look at his xG suggests that he should have still had a few more goals.
The German has netted twice, well below his 4.5 xG. Tut tut.
xG - Goal Differential: -2.5
9. Diogo Jota
Diogo Jota has been prolific in the Europa League this season - averaging a goal per game - but in the Premier League his finishing has left a lot to be desired.
The Portuguese forward may have netted on seven occasions but his xG suggests that he should be in double figures.
xG - Goal Differential: -2.6
8. Miguel Almirón
Miguel Almirón has long been a figure of ridicule for his aversion to goals.
It took him 40 shots to finally open his Newcastle account back in December and despite some improvement after Christmas he continues to struggle in front of goal.
He's managed a whopping four goals in 35 appearances this season, well shy of his 6.7 xG. Yikes.
xG - Goal Differential: -2.7
7. Shane Long
No one can deny Shane Long's commitment to the team. It's his lack of finishing ability that's concerning.
The Irishman spends games hurtling around the pitch like an unhinged greyhound but he doesn't often hit the back of the net.
Long has got two goals this season and he should be closer to five. Still not great, but better than nothing.
xG - Goal Differential: -2.7
6. Pierre-Emile Højbjerg
It's been a tough few months for Pierre-Emile Højbjerg.
First he's stripped of the Southampton captaincy for issuing a 'come and get me' plea to his Premier League suitors and now he finds out he's one of the worst finishers in the league.
The Dane hasn't scored at all this season and his xG suggests that he should definitely have at least one.
That won't stop Jose Mourinho from putting in a bid though.
xG - Goal Differential: -2.8
5. Joelinton
Of course, there's another Newcastle forward on this list.
Joelinton's struggles in front of goal since he joined the Magpies for £35m in the summer have been well documented.
The expensive Brazilian has managed just two goals this season, even though his xG suggests he should have had at least three more.
xG - Goal Differential: -3.0
4. Christian Benteke
Christian Benteke has twice as many yellow cards as goals this season - a truly remarkable stat for a once feared striker.
The Belgian has only managed a handful of strikes since the start of the 2017/18 campaign. It's a far cry from the form that earned him a move to Liverpool in 2015.
His xG suggests that things should have gone a lot better for Benteke this campaign.
xG - Goal Differential: -3.3
3. Gabriel Jesus
Long touted as Sergio Aguero's long term successor, those singing Gabriel Jesus' name from the rooftops may want to have a look at his xG.
The Brazilian should have netted 4.2 more goals than he has managed this season.
That's not the sort of finishing Manchester City will be looking for as they try to close the gap on Liverpool at the top of the Premier League.
xG - Goal Differential: -4.2
2. David McGoldrick
Can we just shock you? David McGoldrick is not number one on this list.
The Irishman's quest for a Premier League goal was one of the most exciting subplots of the season...prior to McGoldrick finally breaking his duck against with a brace against Chelsea earlier this month.
If it wasn't for this shock flurry of goals, he would be leading this list by quite a margin.
xG - Goal Differential: -5.1
1. Roberto Firmino
Well, this revelation will do little to quell the debate about Roberto Firmino.
The Brazilian is an important part of the Reds' attacking plan and few players in the world can operate in the false nine position better.
However, when the stats suggest that Firmino should have scored over FIVE more goals this season, his performances have to be questioned.
Margins such as these can be the difference between first and second place during normal Premier League campaigns.
xG - Goal Differential: -5.5