How Gareth Southgate can mastermind an England win over France

Here's the short answer, in case you're reading this Gareth (and let's face it, why wouldn't you be).

Don't switch to a back three. Whatever you do. Don't do that. It won't work. It demonstrably hasn't worked in the past, whatever your record at major tournaments suggests. Against the very best international teams, it simply won't do.

Whereas the 4-3-3 system you have stumbled upon in Qatar is perfect for this squad of players and is bringing the best out of an England team that - on paper - look outclassed individually by France.

England, as currently assembled, are a much greater team than the sum of their parts. You've done that. Don't throw it away now and revert back to old habits. To beat France, England must cause significant problems of our own.

Now for the slightly longer answer...

The current defensive set-up looks perfect to counter Mbappe

Southgate must name the same team, that's easy enough.

Even the inclusion of the often-derided Jordan Henderson has proved something of a masterstroke. Credit where credit is due.

His first start came against Wales in the final group stage game but it wouldn't be a suprise that, even then, it was an adjustment with France in the knockout stages in mind, where Henderson is now perfectly placed in the RCM position to provide cover against Kylian Mbappe and help track the forward runs of Adrien Rabiot.

With Kyle Walker at right-back and Bukayo Saka at right-wing, not to mention Declan Rice, well, everywhere, that quintet of players looks England's best bet at containing the nuclear arms, existential threat that is Mbappe.

Of course you can't focus entirely on him, given that Ousmane Dembele is dangerous himself on the right, as is Antoine Griezmann drifting into space across the full width of the pitch and Olivier Giroud whenever he receives the ball into feet or finds a yard of space to attack a cross.

There is no gameplan in the world that completely shuts down every threat but if France are going to beat us, make sure it's not because Mbappe has been left with half the pitch to run into, please.

Fight fire with fire by focusing attacks down the left flank

But let's remember something else: England have scored the joint most goals of any team in this World Cup so far. Along with Portugal, who only caught up after belatedly dropping Cristiano Ronaldo on Tuesday and hammering the Swiss via Goncalo Ramos.

France are yet to keep a clean sheet. Mbappe, Giroud and Dembele make up a tremendous front line but off-the-ball aren't going to provide much cover for their defence and midfield. Hugo Lloris is something of a liability in goal, whether playing out from the back or coming out for high balls and crosses. Jules Kounde, though a fine centre-back, doesn't look entirely comfortable as a right full-back and will offer very little going forward.

With Phil Foden tearing down England's left flank and the quality passing from deep of Luke Shaw, he really can't afford to, anyway. France's left side is a monumental threat but so too is England's - two of the three goals scored against Senegal came as a result of attacks down that wing.

With Harry Kane dropping deep and Jude Bellingham surging in behind, that quartet could well make the difference once again.

England's pass map following the 3-0 victory against Senegal showed those four players all clumped together way over on the left. If Southgate and his team can recreate those quick triangles, there will be acres of space for Saka and even Henderson to attack in the centre and from there the goals will come, as they did against the reigning African champions.

England's bench is better than France's

Southgate has guided his team to comfortable winning positions relatively early so far throughout this World Cup, meaning England's stacked bench has often come into games simply to try and rack up the scoreline.

The one notable exception was against the USA, during which Southgate failed to impact the game with his substitutes - most notably with Foden, who was inexplicably rooted to his seat as England failed to get hold of the ball and play through the American press. Like a French press but with much, much worse coffee at the end.

With Jack Grealish, Mason Mount and James Maddison to call upon, England have serious creativity at their disposal if they fall behind and can't find a goal. Marcus Rashford is a perpetual goal threat (especially given the form he is in) and should be brought on to stretch the game whatever the scenario; France will not want him running at them with the ball or in behind without it during the second half.

The same can be said for Grealish, while Mount's pressing and off-the-ball work should help if England do need to protect a lead, along with maintaining an attacking threat from midfield. Maddison, although he is yet to play any minutes in Qatar, is England's finest striker of a ball other than Kane and could conjure up a goal from nothing as a late Hail Mary.

Southgate cannot afford to be hesitant with changes. If things aren't working, there is the personnel available to turn the tide in England's favour, it is no good waiting until the last 15 minutes.

Elsewhere, using Kalvin Phillips as a replacement for Henderson around the hour mark should be a no-brainer to help shore things up and give England more legs in midfield. The Liverpool captain isn't quite the infinite source of energy he once was and Phillips is excellent defensively as well as comfortable on the ball, should we need to focus on keeping possession late on.

Finally, don't just shut up shop if England get an early goal

For everything that he has achieved as England manager, Southgate's reputation will largely be marred by the way his teams reacted to going ahead early in both the 2018 World Cup semi-final against Croatia and the Euro 2020 final against Italy.

Kieran Trippier after five minutes, Shaw after two. Those early goals will live long in the memory of every England fan, even if what was to follow for the remaining 120 minutes, give or take, was torture. Instant, early delirium, and then the slow, inevitable tug of heartache as the game began to pull away in the opposite direction.

If Southgate hasn't learned from those two experiences, during which England quickly retreated into their own shells and played up to their own worst stereotypes on the biggest stage, then this will be as far as he can take England as an international manager.

Croatia's midfield turned the screw against Dele Alli and Jesse Lingard, possibly the strangest central pairing to ever appear in a World Cup semi, as England tried and failed to defend a single goal lead (with that midfield!) for over 80 minutes. Neither Dele or Lingard were replaced during that game.

The same thing happened against Italy, when, after tearing the Azzurri apart with their very first attack of the game, England ceded full control over to their opponents and tried to hold out.

England can be a devastating team on the break and it should really play into their hands going a goal up - something we are yet to witness when it matters most. Perhaps in a more natural formation, without five defenders on the pitch, we can finally see England step on the gas rather than easing off it against the best teams.

In this World Cup so far, Southgate's teams have been ruthless at killing teams off. Just look at the quickfire doubles against Wales and Senegal that buried any hopes of a comeback before one had even begun. England weren't at their best to begin, but one goal opened the floodgates. It's about doing that against more serious opposition.

Given everything mentioned above; the new shape, the attacking quality, the impact substitutes, there is no reason for this England team to ever try and sit back and defend for an entire game. There will be spells with their backs to the wall - of course there will be, this is knockout football - but it is going forward that this England team really shines.

Southgate must trust in that, as he has done so far this tournament other than against the US. England won't beat France trying to edge the contest by a goal; Didier Deschamps' team is far better equipped to win that way.

England will beat France only by doing everything they have done at the World Cup so far, by being bold going forward and clinical in front of goal, by firmly believing we are the team to sit back against and not the other way around.