The favourites to win the Ballon d'Or 2024 - ranked

Lionel Messi's record-extending eighth Ballon d'Or in 2023 came as a surprise to absolutely nobody in the footballing world.

The legendary Argentine had led his country to the 2022 World Cup after all, where he arguably cemented his place as the greatest footballer to have ever played the game.

However, a new name will lift the Ballon d'Or trophy in 2024, with a host of players competing to win the accolade for the first time. With neither Messi nor longtime rival Cristiano Ronaldo nominated (as well as active previous winners Luka Modric and Karim Benzema), stars around Europe will feel they have a good chance of claiming the individual prize.

The winner will be announced on 28 October but votes should purely be based off achievements between 1 August 2023 and 31 July 2024 - thus taking into account the summer feast of international tournament football. However, as with any individual award, the Ballon d'Or is often a popularity contest, too.

Here's 90min's favourites for the award.

Who will win the Ballon d'Or 2024?

30. Mats Hummels (Roma)

Mats Hummels enjoyed a renaissance during the 2023/24 Champions League, putting in dominant displays in central defence for former club Borussia Dortmund.

The 35-year-old was a pivotal figure for BVB as they reached the final in Europe, eventually being defeated by Real Madrid in the final.

If he were to spectacularly win the award (he won't), he would do so for Roma having joined the Italian side on a free transfer.

29. Ruben Dias (Manchester City)

It wasn't a treble-winning year for Manchester City and Ruben Dias perhaps performed below his intimidating peak, especially at the start of the 2023/24 campaign, but it was still good enough for a Ballon d'Or nomination.

The Portuguese defender was an important figure in defence as the Cityzens held off Arsenal to win a fourth Premier League title in a row.

28. Artem Dovbyk (Roma)

The Pichichi Trophy used to be dominated by Messi and Ronaldo, so there's definitely an aura of prestige attached to the prize.

It had never previously been claimed by a Girona player but Artem Dovbyk's 24 La Liga goals edged Alexander Sorloth's 23 strikes and earned him a summer move to Roma. Dovbyk disappointed at Euro 2024 with Ukraine, though.

27. Emiliano Martinez (Aston Villa)

Goalkeepers are often snubbed for the best awards and that is likely to be the case for Emiliano Martinez again this year. However, if a stopper is to win the Ballon d'Or, it should be the current Yashin Trophy holder.

After an astonishing season guarding the Aston Villa net, helping the club reach the Champions League for the first time in the Premier League era, he took his skills to the United States for the 2024 Copa America.

He won the Best Goalkeeper award - something he did at the 2021 Copa America and 2022 World Cup - as Argentina defended their crown, with Martinez conceding just once at the tournament. He also proved a hero in the quarter-final penalty shootout against Ecuador.

26. Alejandro Grimaldo (Bayer Leverkusen)

Alejandro Grimaldo's stunning performances for Bayer Leverkusen at left-wing-back have earned the Spaniard a deserved nomination, but that's likely to be as far as it goes for the 28-year-old.

Grimaldo settled immensely quickly under Xabi Alonso after leaving Benfica, with ten goals and 13 assists proving key to his side's Bundesliga title success.

25. Ademola Lookman (Atalanta)

Ademola Lookman has gone from strength to strength since leaving the Premier League to join Atalanta, though it's undoubtedly his Europa League final hat-trick which has seen him shortlisted for this award. Lookman's heroics in Dublin prevented Bayer Leverkusen from completing the perfect season.

The wide forward also scored three times for Nigeria during the Africa Cup of Nations and could be due a big transfer soon, with Paris Saint-Germain having shown interest over the summer.

24. Vitinha (Paris Saint-Germain)

Vitinha hardly looked like a Ballon d'Or nominee during his loan spell at Wolves a few years ago, but the slight midfielder has come on leaps and bounds over the past few seasons.

The Portugal international was a key figure as PSG reached the Champions League semi-finals but couldn't drag his side past Dortmund, being let down by a number of his teammates.

23. Hakan Calhanoglu (Inter)

Ask Hakan Calhanoglu and he'll probably tell you he's the best midfielder in the world. He'd be wrong, but you can't doubt the self-confidence of the Inter maestro (and he's not too far off, in fairness).

The 30-year-old won his first Serie A title last term with his best goalscoring campaign since 2012/13, but that won't be enough for Calhanoglu to get his hands on the Ballon d'Or.

22. William Saliba (Arsenal)

William Saliba's rise at Arsenal has been extraordinary. It initially looked like the Frenchman wasn't rated by Mikel Arteta but he has since established himself as the leader of the Gunners' defence.

France aren't short of options at centre-back but it's Saliba who has established himself under Didier Deschamps, featuring prominently during Euro 2024. He won't win the Ballon d'Or but his nomination is just reward for his development in recent years.

21. Cole Palmer (Chelsea)

The Ballon d'Or often goes to a player who has been pivotal in triumphs for club and country, which definitely counts against Cole Palmer this year. However, his sheer talent and inevitability means he cannot be ignored.

The Chelsea star dragged England level in the Euro 2024 final and had wracked up 25 goals in all competitions before the summer. It surely won't be his last nomination.

20. Martin Odegaard (Arsenal)

Martin Odegaard's standing in the game continues to grow as Arsenal knock on the door of major honours. Should he help the Gunners finally claim a Premier League or Champions League title, he'll be right up there among the top favourites for the award.

His ease on the ball and ingenious creativity are so crucial to Arsenal's performances and, at only 25 years of age, there's much more to come from the Norwegian.

19. Dani Olmo (Barcelona)

If the Ballon d'Or voting was purely based on the events of Euro 2024, Dani Olmo would be a shoo-in for the award. The midfielder took advantage of an injury to Pedri at the tournament to solidify his spot in the Spain team, finishing up with three goals, two assists and the trophy in Germany.

However, his 2023/24 RB Leipzig campaign was far from spectacular following consistent injuries, with just nine goal contributions in last season's Bundesliga.

18. Declan Rice (Arsenal)

Arsenal may have finished as the bridesmaid for the second season running, but that isn't to say Declan Rice's addition wasn't transformative.

The £105m man added several new strings to his bow in north London, with Arteta often giving Rice the license to roam and wreak havoc in the final third. The best goal return of his career was the result, with the midfielder also proving himself to be a valuable set-piece asset.

Rice was everything Arsenal supporters thought he would be in year one and he was a constant for England as they reached the Euro 2024 final.

17. Granit Xhaka (Bayer Leverkusen)

Granit Xhaka was able to reinvent himself in the latter part of his Arsenal career and has built on those foundations since his move to Bayer Leverkusen.

His first season back in Germany was a remarkable success as he helped Alonso's side win a domestic double, being crowned Bundesliga champions for the first time.

The Switzerland international's excellent displays in midfield also helped Leverkusen reach the 2023/24 Europa League final, while he popped up with a crucial winning strike in the DFB-Pokal final, too.

16. Federico Valverde (Real Madrid)

Real Madrid's record-extending 15th win combined across the European Cup and Champions League would not have been possible without the indefatigable efforts of Uruguayan midfielder Federico Valverde.

While Los Blancos' many attacking talents eventually powered them to another historic double, it was the central midfielder who so often nicked possession back off the opposition and got his side moving forward.

He won't win the Ballon d'Or, but there's no doubt Valverde is among the elite ballers in world football.

15. Bukayo Saka (Arsenal)

Arsenal's rise under Arteta has been impressive to say the least, with the club now firmly established as one of the Premier League's top sides after another second-place finish.

One of the star turns in north London has been Bukayo Saka, who has quickly matured into one of the finest wingers in the world.

England's run to the Euro 2024 final was boosted massively by Saka, who still managed to shine when the going was tough. His excellent strike against Switzerland in the quarter-final was a memorable moment in Germany.

The Arsenal winger is becoming inevitable down the right flank.

14. Nico Williams (Athletic Club)

Not many outside of Spain were overly familiar with Nico Williams ahead of Euro 2024. They certainly are now.

The electric winger produced some excellent returns for Athletic Club during the 2023/24 campaign, scoring eight times and offering up 19 assists as the Basque outfit won the Copa del Rey - their first major trophy in 40 years.

Williams then dazzled further at Euro 2024 with some mesmerising performances, including a goal in the final against England as Spain claimed a fourth Euros title.

13. Antonio Rudiger (Real Madrid)

It's rare for centre-backs to earn Ballon d'Or recognition, but Antonio Rudiger is fully deserving of a lofty standing.

The German was relied upon heavily by Carlo Ancelotti last season. While the Real Madrid backline chopped and changed due to injuries, Rudiger was a constant.

He relishes the grand occasion and barely put a foot wrong all season, with the Madrid star certainly the world's best centre-back in 2023/24.

12. Erling Haaland (Manchester City)

One word: goals.

Erling Haaland scores goals. A ludicrous amount of goals. A record-breaking amount of goals.

Those goals helped Manchester City to the Premier League title last season and the Norwegian to another Golden Boot, walking away with 27 goals in the English first division. Although, Haaland couldn't match the ludicrous scoring heights he achieved in 2022/23.

After finishing runner-up to Messi in the 2023 Ballon d'Or vote, Haaland's chances of winning for the first time will be held back by Norway's failure to qualify for Euro 2024 and City's quarter-final elimination from the Champions League.

11. Phil Foden (Manchester City)

2023/24 was the season Phil Foden came of age.

With Ilkay Gundogan out of the door and De Bruyne missing the first half of the season through injury, Pep Guardiola needed an alternate superstar to stand up.

Foden delivered and then some for the title-winning Cityzens, dazzling weekly with his samba-like brilliance in tight spaces. He produced when it mattered most, too, scoring twice in the Manchester derby and on the final day against West Ham.

A poor showing at Euro 2024 hasn't helped his cause, but he still did reach the final with the Three Lions.

10. Florian Wirtz (Bayer Leverkusen)

Bayer Leverkusen enjoyed a historic season. A 2-1 win over Augsburg on the final day meant Alonso's team became the first in German football history to go an entire Bundesliga season unbeaten.

Every player played a role in their immense success, but none more so than genius playmaker Florian Wirtz.

Leverkusen fans have seen the low sock-donning German emerge as a teenager and blossom into one of the world's best off the back of a devastating injury. He's been nothing short of joyous and the voters simply can't ignore him.

9. Harry Kane (Bayern Munich)

It was an odd debut season for Harry Kane in Munich given his goals actually counted for very little - he's been there before.

Having taken the plunge last summer, Kane was superb in his first season in Bavaria and came ever so close to smashing Robert Lewandowski's single-season Bundesliga scoring record. The striker scored a staggering 36 goals from 32 games, but Bayern Munich ended the campaign without any silverware.

He may have scored three times at Euro 2024 but the general consensus was that Kane actually held England back with his fairly ineffective displays up front. Tottenham's all-time record goalscorer is certainly no stranger to sluggish summer outings after an arduous campaign at club level.

Still, he will always find goals.

8. Lautaro Martinez (Inter)

Lautaro Martinez has been on the cusp of greatness for what feels like an eternity and the pieces are finally falling into place for the Argentine at Inter.

Martinez has the tendency to endure periods of cold form, especially in front of goal, but his consistency in 2023/24 ensured he walked away with his first Capocannoniere crown.

Inter were Serie A's best team by some distance as they claimed the Scudetto at a canter and Martinez took his unbelievable form into the Copa America. He grabbed the trophy and finished the competition with a tournament-high five goals, including the winner in the final.

7. Toni Kroos (Real Madrid)

The sporting world has lost another poet. Toni Kroos has been done with football since Euro 2024, with the midfielder having cleared away his paintbrush for good.

His ranking on this list hasn't merely been boosted by his retirement. Kroos was utterly outstanding last season and was a key component of the Real Madrid side that won the Champions League.

There's still not a pass he can't complete, and Real Madrid are sorely missing the control he can exude on matches in the middle of the park.

6. Lamine Yamal (Barcelona)

That Lamine Yamal is already being mentioned in the Ballon d'Or conversation is quite frankly ridiculous. What were you doing at 16?

The Barcelona youngster is still making his first steps into the world of men's professional football but few opposition players have been able to come up with a plan to stop him.

The wonderkid has set a large number of records since breaking through in Catalonia and for the Spain national team, including becoming the youngest goalscorer in European Championship history when he netted a stunner in the semi-final against France.

He won the Young Player of the Tournament and Goal of the Tournament awards en route to the trophy itself this summer, which is truly remarkable given he's still just a teenager.

In a world of generational talents, Yamal could dominate for a long, long time - just as long as Barca don't overload him at such a tender age.

5. Kylian Mbappe (Real Madrid)

Surely it's only a matter of time before the best footballer of his generation wins the Ballon d'Or? Although, we've been saying that since 2018.

Kylian Mbappe will continue his streak of finishing in the top ten of Ballon d'Or voting at the 2024 ceremony (he has done every year since 2017), but whether he tops his best-ever finish of third remains to be seen. However, the generational Frenchman is clearly a favourite of voters thanks to his performances in big games - he scored a hat-trick in the World Cup final and scored over 200 times for PSG before he jetted off to the Spanish capital in the summer.

His move to Real Madrid will aid his chances of claiming the lucrative individual honour, and he may well have been a favourite for this year's award had he produced for France at Euro 2024.

4. Dani Carvajal (Real Madrid)

Not many would have put Real Madrid right-back Dani Carvajal among the favourites for the Ballon d'Or at the beginning of last season. In fact, even the Spaniard would have been unable to envisage just how incredible a year he would boast.

A constant at the back for the Spanish giants, Carvajal scored the crucial opening goal in the Champions League final against Borussia Dortmund, winning the tournament for the sixth time in his career.

But he wasn't done there. The veteran was the starting right-back for Spain at Euro 2024 as well, helping La Roja to yet another major international trophy. His leadership was key within a fairly young side, and he was excellent in the final against England.

An ACL injury in 2024/25 means it's almost certainly now or never for the defender to win the most prestigious individual prize on offer.

3. Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid)

Jude Bellingham's start to life at Real Madrid was out of this world, transforming the Englishman from 'wunderkind' to 'superstar' status in the blink of an eye.

Despite all the attention, Bellingham doesn't appear to be fazed by anything. Quite the contrary, he appears to thrive in the pressure-cooker environment of the Santiago Bernabeu and delivered some memorable moments for England at Euro 2024. You won't be remembering that overhead kick against Slovakia in a hurry, that's for sure.

"Who else?"

Having been a major contributor in a double-winning Real Madrid team during his debut season in the Spanish capital, Bellingham could be looking at a podium finish at the 2024 ceremony.

2. Vinicius Junior (Real Madrid)

There are times when watching Vinicius Junior race down the left flank, drift past three players effortlessly, before squaring expertly to a teammate, where fans must think "Yep, this guy is the best footballer in the world."

Those times have been getting ever-more frequent over the last few seasons and, although Bellingham threatened to steal the limelight in 2023/24, Vinicius reached new heights having returned from injury in the new year.

The Brazilian continues to deliver in the big moments for Madrid, especially in the Champions League. Vinicius netted a brace at the Allianz Arena in the first leg of their semi-final against Bayern Munich and then produced the clinching strike in the final itself.

However, reports on the day of the ceremony suggest it won't be Vinicius Junior holding the Golden Ball aloft. He may well be the most electric forward on the planet and a star in the biggest moments for Madrid, but his form for Brazil has surely conspired against him for the 2024 award.

1. Rodri (Manchester City)

While players in his role feel less likely to win the Ballon d'Or, Rodri was so remarkably consistent in 2023/24 that he has to be among the obvious candidates and it looks like he's going to get rewarded in a huge way on Monday night.

In a career-best 2022/23 campaign, the defensive midfielder was the MVP for the best football team in the world. He is excellent defensively, a great passer of the ball and is a big producer in clutch moments.

The Spaniard scored City's third against West Ham on the final day to seal the Premier League title, having netted the Cityzens' only goal in the 2023 Champions League final.

The midfielder was essential to Spain's success at Euro 2024 as he built a formidable partnership with Fabian Ruiz and was rightly awarded the Player of the Tournament award as Spain grabbed the trophy.

Like his compatriot Carvajal, an ACL injury means that he certainly won't be winning the 2025 Ballon d'Or but if reports are to be believed, he's unlikely to be bothered too much by that.

READ MORE ON THE 2024 BALLON D'OR NOMINATIONS AND OTHER AWARDS