UEFA Euro 2020

Euro 2020 semi-final teams - ranked

Italy are in the semi finals for the first time since 2012
Italy are in the semi finals for the first time since 2012 / STUART FRANKLIN/Getty Images
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There are just three matches and four teams left at Euro 2020 after a gripping set of quarter-final games.

It is time then for the Stats Perform Euros Prediction, created by Stats Perform's AI team with the use of Opta data, to attempt to identify the most likely champion.

This model estimates the probability of the outcome (win or loss) of each match, using betting market odds and Stats Perform team rankings, which are based on historical and recent performances. It considers the strength of opponents and how difficult each team's forthcoming fixtures look.

The final stages of the tournament has then been simulated 40,000 times, with each outcome analysed, providing a percentage to assign to each of the remaining eight teams to show their chances of lifting the trophy.

In France and Belgium, the favourites have bowed out in consecutive rounds, so who leads the way now?

The last four – and their title hopes – are ranked below...

4. Denmark (10.4 per cent)

Daniel Wass, Jens Stryger Larsen
Denmark have reached the semi finals of the Euros for the first time since 1992 / Naomi Baker/Getty Images

Denmark have returned to the semi-finals of a major tournament for the first time since they were European champions in 1992, but this campaign has in many ways been even more impressive than that shock triumph.

This is the first time Denmark have won three consecutive games at the Euros and 11 goals represents their highest-scoring championship to date.

Still, though, they will surely have to lift their level again from beating Russia, Wales and the Czech Republic to topple England.

Denmark are a 32.6 per cent shot to overcome the Three Lions and reach the final. It would not be the first time they have upset the odds at this tournament.

3. Spain (23.0 per cent)

Switzerland v Spain - UEFA Euro 2020: Quarter-final
Spain needed penalties to beat Switzerland / Kirill Kudryavstev - Pool/Getty Images

Stuck in the same quarter of the draw as world champions France, Spain were not expected to make it this far. But Switzerland dumped out Les Bleus and then came up agonisingly short against Luis Enrique's side.

Next opponents Italy are clear favourites in the last four, though, having been more convincing against trickier opposition.

Spain have just a 34.6 per cent likelihood of making the final, but they will back themselves if they can stick with the Azzurri as far as a penalty shoot-out.

No team have won as many shoot-outs as Spain, with one of their four successes coming against Italy en route to taking the title in 2008.

2. England (26.7 per cent)

Harry Kane
Kane scored twice as England blitzed past Ukraine / Alessandra Tarantino - Pool/Getty Images

England have momentum on their side heading into their third European Championship semi-final against Denmark on home territory at Wembley.

The 4-0 quarter-final win against Ukraine was their biggest at the Euros and their biggest in the knockout stage of a major tournament, scoring as many goals in that match as in their prior four games at this tournament.

Crucially, too, the Three Lions are not conceding. They have kept seven consecutive clean sheets in all competitions, last conceding 662 minutes ago against Poland in March.

Jordan Pickford has five clean sheets in five matches at these finals – no goalkeeper has ever kept more in a single edition of the competition.

He would surely settle simply for England capitalising on their 67.4 per cent chance – the best of the final four – of reaching a first final since the 1966 World Cup.

1. Italy (39.9 per cent)

Nicolo Barella
Italy saw off Belgium to reach the semis / Markus Gilliar/Getty Images

It should come as no surprise that Italy top the charts, having broken all sorts of records to reach this stage.

The Azzurri are unbeaten in 32 in all competitions – their best ever run – and have won 13 in a row, including five straight at these finals. Roberto Mancini is only the second coach, after France's Michel Hidalgo in 1984, to win his first five European Championship matches.

Indeed, including qualifiers, Italy have won a record 15 Euros games in succession.

And the 1968 champions know a thing or two about the latter stages of these tournaments, making the semi-finals at 12 Euros or World Cups – second only to Germany (20) among European nations.

Italy have won their past four last-four ties, too, explaining their 65.4 per cent shot at a final spot.

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