90min
UEFA Euro 2020

Euro 2020 quarter-final teams - ranked

Harry Kane scored as England beat Germany
Harry Kane scored as England beat Germany / Catherine Ivill/Getty Images
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The first knockout round at Euro 2020 brought shocks, with favourites France among those eliminated.

The world champions, holders Portugal, Germany and the Netherlands will all play no further part in the tournament, blowing the draw wide open.

So, who is best placed to triumph now? The Stats Perform Euros Prediction, created by Stats Perform's AI team with the use of Opta data, has attempted to answer that question.

This model estimates the probability of the outcome (win or loss) of each match, using betting market odds and Stats Perform team rankings, which are based on historical and recent performances. It considers the strength of opponents and how difficult each team's route to the final now looks.

The remainder of the tournament has then been simulated 40,000 times, with each outcome analysed, providing a percentage to assign to each of the remaining eight teams to show their chances of lifting the trophy.

As the Wembley final draws nearer, the contenders – and their title hopes – are ranked below...


8. Czech Republic (2.8%)

Patrik Schick
Czech Republic shocked the Netherlands / Alex Pantling/Getty Images

The Czech Republic had not won a knockout game at a major tournament since Euro 2004 but stunned the Netherlands' 10 men 2-0 thanks to goals from Tomas Holes and Patrik Schick – the latter's fourth in four games.

That 2004 win was a quarter-final success against Denmark and they will get the chance to repeat that triumph in the next stage. Jaroslav Silhavy's men are underdogs, though, given a 46.9 per cent chance of beating the Danes.

Even on the apparently easier side of the draw, the Czech Republic are considered least likely to go all the way.

7. Switzerland (4%)

Yann Sommer
Switzerland knocked out the favourites / Marcio Machado/Getty Images

Kylian Mbappe's shootout miss sensationally gave Switzerland victory against France, meaning an unexpected first major tournament quarter-final since the 1954 World Cup.

It scarcely gets any easier as Switzerland must next face Spain, who they have beaten only once in 22 meetings and have just a 26.9 per cent expectation of defeating again. That sole victory came in the sides' most recent tournament clash at the 2010 World Cup, however.

6. Ukraine (4.1%)

Artem Dovbyk
Ukraine beat Sweden after extra time / Andy Buchanan - Pool/Getty Images

Ukraine left it late against Sweden – indeed, Artem Dovbyk's 121st-minute header was the latest winner in Euros history – but they can now look forward to a first European Championship quarter-final against England.

Battered and bruised from their Hampden Park win, another triumph in Rome this weekend feels a tough ask – only Switzerland are considered more unlikely to reach the last four – but Andriy Shevchenko's men have already broken new ground.

5. Denmark (7%)

Kasper Dolberg
Dolberg was the hero for Denmark / BSR Agency/Getty Images

Denmark might only be fifth favourites but they are arguably the form team, having become the first side in Euros history to score four or more goals in consecutive matches. Admittedly, Spain then netted five in back-to-back games.

Kasper Hjulmand's men have momentum and are just about backed to continue their run of victories against the Czech Republic, before they could provide tough semi-final opposition.

4. Italy (15.4%)

FBL-EURO-2020-2021-MATCH37-ITA-AUT
Chiesa is very good / FRANK AUGSTEIN/Getty Images

Italy are not even favourites in their quarter-final tie – given a 45.1 per cent opportunity of winning – but few will back against them going all the way having impressed so far at the finals.

The only previous time the Azzurri won four matches on the bounce at the Euros, as they have now, they were then beaten finalists in 2000. They will hope to go one better this year.

3. England (18.3%)

Raheem Sterling
Sterling can't stop scoring / Robbie Jay Barratt - AMA/Getty Images

England fans could be forgiven for getting carried away after beating Germany in a competitive game at Wembley for the first time since the 1966 World Cup final.

That tournament – the Three Lions' sole major triumph – also provided the only previous example of England keeping clean sheets in each of their first four matches at a finals, as Jordan Pickford has this year.

Gareth Southgate's side are rated as the most likely finalists at a massive 48.5 per cent.

2. Belgium (23.8%)

Romelu Lukaku
Lukaku is Belgium's main man / Quality Sport Images/Getty Images

Belgium were second favourites after the group stage and remain so, even with France out. The Red Devils toppled reigning champions Portugal but saw Kevin De Bruyne and Eden Hazard injured in the process.

Roberto Martinez's outfit have won their past five tournament games but have never come out on top in six in a row. Italy are up next in a mammoth last-eight tie, albeit one where they are expected to advance from.

1. Spain (24.6%)

Cesar Azpilicueta, Pedri
Spain are scoring goals for fun / Pixsell/MB Media/Getty Images

Finishing second in their group, Spain were dealt a daunting path through the tournament, facing World Cup finalists Croatia and then, presumably, Russia 2018 victors France.

But Les Bleus' exit boosts the hopes of Spain, the best team in their quarter of the draw.

La Roja have scored 11 times at Euro 2020 – only in 2008 and 2012 have they netted more goals at a single European Championship. They took the title on both occasions.


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