2020/21 promises to be the best Premier League title race in years

The 2020/21 Premier League title race won’t set any records…unless it is for the lowest title winning points tally. But what it has the potential to be is the most exciting, most entertaining, most generally unpredictable and therefore the best we’ve seen in many years.

The Premier League champions haven’t finished with fewer than 90 points since 2015/16 when Leicester did the unthinkable and finished top of the pile. There have only been three occasions in a 38-game Premier League season when the champions have fallen short of 80 points.

A lower points tally may indicate less objective quality from the champions, but it highlights a more competitive league and a tighter finish because no single side or pair of clubs can get too far ahead.

All three of the sub-80 seasons were in consecutive years in the late 1990s and provided some of the best title races in living memory.

Manchester City achieved incredible new heights in 2017/18 with a century of points, but there was no title race to speak of after October and there was zero intrigue or competitiveness. It was the same when Liverpool ran away with it last season. In 2018/19, they ran each other to the wire, yet both were expected to win every week and that is exactly what happened.

What makes a title race more exciting is dropped points, from all those involved, at any time. That will keep more clubs involved, and this is one of those things where more is always better.

1996/97 saw Manchester United win the title with 75 points, the fewest ever needed to be crowned Premier League champions. With less than a month of the season left, three points separated United, Arsenal and Liverpool, while the top three weren’t far enough ahead that a late charge also brought Newcastle firmly into contention – the Magpies eventually finished second.

The 1997/98 race was all about Manchester United and Arsenal and the great chase from the latter.

The same two clubs also dominated the narrative in 1998/99, but people tend to forget just how close behind Chelsea were and it was a genuine three-horse race. Several years before Roman Abramovich’s millions came, Chelsea were just four points back in the end and ultimately their title challenge was only derailed by three consecutive draws in mid-April.

This season, the inconsistent form of the top clubs and the current points per game average at this stage of the campaign would put the final title-winning tally at the 76 mark.

As of this moment, four points separate the top five clubs. That doesn’t include Chelsea, who have the quality and potential to put a run together. Nor does it include Aston Villa, who have the second best defensive record in the league and sit on 26 points with a game in hand. Manchester City are eighth, have two games in hands, and are seven points off the top.

Consistency, as it was when Leicester upset the apple cart five years ago, will be key. Back then, the Foxes got into position and held their nerve when others couldn’t.

The consistency with which Liverpool ground out wins last season has deserted them and they have been unable to pull away as a result of drawing five of their last nine league games ahead of facing Southampton in a potentially tricky away game on Monday night. In that run, it hasn’t necessarily been top teams taking points from them, with draws against three of the current bottom four.

Manchester United have been able to get where they are and in contention because a consistent run of results – 26 points from the last 30 on offer – has overridden a poor start.

Everton flew back into contention because they won four in a row in December, having won only one of the previous seven before that streak began. A win in their last game fired Tottenham, who fell apart in December after a strong October and November, suddenly back into the top three.

As things stand, every club from sixth all the way down to tenth has the same number of points. If any one of those puts any sort of run together, they will climb the table rapidly.

That Leicester have shown in the recent past it is possible to take advantage if the very best clubs are in a lull season, doesn’t actively exclude anyone still in close touching distance at this stage, whether it be Aston Villa, Southampton, or Leicester again.

The excitement will be watching it unfold and all the twists that are yet to be seen in the best, tightest and most competitive title race in years.

For more from Jamie Spencer, follow him on Twitter and Facebook!